December 31, 2006

Probabilities in Infinity

A deceptively innocent-looking llama
So a devout Christian and a silly atheist are arguing one day about what happens to us after we die. The devout Christian obviously argues that we either go to heaven or hell. The silly atheist argues that this is outrageously improbable. What are the chances that after we die we’ll end up in some man-made fantasy world based on man-made morals? What are the chances that our particular notions of right and wrong will be the deciding factors of our fate and that the options are limited to two, precisely one of a heaven full of our particular notions of happiness and one of a hell full of our particular notions of suffering? The silly atheist argues instead that it is far more likely, nearly to the point of complete certainty, that nothing happens after we die--that our consciousness is extinguished and our bodies simply become inanimate objects.

So why is the atheist silly? The atheist’s arguments are completely inane within the context of reason because nobody has any clue what really happens to us after we die. Nobody has ever crossed over so to speak, observed whatever may be out there, and come back to tell us what they saw. There is no workable science, no way of reasoning or proving anything about what happens to us after we die. We know absolutely nothing and therefore we cannot make any logical claims that any one conception of what happens to us after we die is more plausible than any other. Every possibility is equally likely in the same way all orders of infinity—like the number of all integers versus the number of all real numbers—are really just the same: infinite. Another way of looking at it (again mathematical) is the idea that every possibility has a probability of 1 over 0 where the 1 in the numerator signifies that one possibility and the 0 in the denominator signifies the number of total known possibilities. In this case we get an error, and so in this way the logic of probabilities cannot be applied to what happens to us after we die.

This can easily be extended to absolutely everything. Another example is “debate” over the existence of God. Richard Dawkins argues in his book The God Delusion that such as being as God, as we know it, really exists. He, as any good evolutionary biologist, begins from an evolutionary standpoint, attacking the idea that the vast The God Delusion by Richard Dawkinscomplexity of life could only be the product of an intelligent designer we tend to call God. He argues that evolution does a much better job of dealing with the development of biological complexity by breaking it down into smaller, less improbable steps. (I won’t go into detail because I’m hoping that you have an intuitive understanding of why this is; otherwise, you can read Dawkins’ book yourself as he explains it quite clearly.) Dawkins argues then that the existence of God is an extremely immense improbability because the chances that something as complex as an omniscient, omnipotent creator could spontaneously come together from nothing are exceedingly slim. But it is this assumption that our notions of probability can be applied to something that we ultimately can have no logical way of analyzing shows that Dawkins, for all his Britishness and wit, is human, all too human. When it comes to contemplating the existence of God, every possibility—that there is no God, that there is a God, that the universe is just the slick computer game being played by a bunch of adolescent alien nerds with correspondingly alien acne (that’s probably what broccoli is)—are all unquantifiably possible in a domain outside of human knowledge and logic. No possibility can be ever be definitely proven to be even the slightest bit more or less probable than any other possibility.

For a simpler analogy, imagine I told you there was an empire of llamas on the moon that drank Cherry Coke through their hooves in order to stay undetectable to human beings. Cherry Coke. Wow.You would say that I was crazy and that it is unlikely to the point of absurdity that this is the case at all. But can you disprove it? No. That means someway, somehow, this may be possible. But then you say something about how llamas can’t survive on moon and how Cherry Coke doesn’t have any properties that resemble stealth bomber technology. So then I ask how much do you really know about llamas or Cherry Coke? How much do you know about the moon or space or life for that matter? We thought the Earth was flat for a long time. What if we’re making the same wrong assumptions about llamas and Cherry Coke? (Note: I am not affiliated in any way with Cherry Coke, any Coca Cola product, or llamas.)

Now to extend this all the way. Hold up your hand and look at it. How do you know you control it? How do you know that your mind isn’t just playing tricks on you, making you believe that that hand is yours? What if your brain is just hooked up to a huge simulation and all of what you think is reality isn’t real? What if conceptions such as reality aren’t real and even the idea of something being real is not real? What if consciousness doesn’t really exist? What if nothing you think exists really exists and existence itself is nonexistent? How do you know anything about anything? Anything is possible and there’s nothing we can do about it. If you just challenge all of your assumptions, even the very deepest ones, then you might find nothing left at the very bottom. Or you might find something. But how will you know that something is anything at all?

Anyways, I should probably just throw out some words that really need no explaining but of course scream out from all of this: relativism, nihilism, existentialism, Vanilla Coke, etc. The end.

5 comments:

Adi said...

bravo!

Anonymous said...

I don't know, Kyle. I found Dawkins' argument pretty compelling. In the absence of any serious evidence in support of God, the probability of God's existence does seem, well, exceedingly small. Your llama and vanilla coke example is similar to Russell's, where he suggests that there is a small, invisible teapot orbiting the earth. We can't prove or disprove the existence of vanilla coke on the moon or a teapot around the earth, no. But based on what we know about reality and the universe, the probability is slim slim slim.

I think Dawkins is aware that he cannot disprove the existence of God--only demonstrate that the odds of his/her existence are tiny. Until more information is available to us, the logical thing to do is go with the odds.

Kyle said...

Recall the cosmological argument for why we're here. Specifically, the one about how the chances of life spontaneously coming into existence on a planet are very small. There are a ton of factors that have to be at just the perfect setting for life to arise. At the same time, there are many stars in the universe, more and more of which we're discovering could have a planet for a pet that might come close to the same near perfect factors that are needed for life as we know it. In the end, however, we don't know how many Goldilocks planets there are in the universe and so any kind of probability like 1 out of every 1 trillion or 1 out of every 6.022x10^23 planets harbors life has no significance.

The same applies to the existence of an ultimate creator. We have no idea what the factors are, what the chances really are, how many possibilities there are, etc. Maybe the conditions that allow for the spontaneous existence of an ultimate creator are actually quite common, perhaps even part of the way the universe happened to turn out. Maybe it's a property of nothingness that something omniscient and omnipotent (the use of both adjectives is redundant) must arise. Maybe there are an infinite number of supreme beings, a whole race, each of which can control everything, knows everything, etc. And maybe, they exist to us in the form of small woodland creatures like squirrels and chipmunks and rabbits, oh my!

Unknown said...

I would never make an argument for an ultimate creator of any sort. That's just difficualt, but I will provide a half-assed argument for a "something." Mind you, my argument does not derive itself out of making myself feel comfortable about life (as most religions attempt to do). I belive the Big Bang Theory is plausible, but that said what was before the Big Bang? What was before the thing that was before the Big Bang? What was before the thing that was before... You catch my drift? I believe something exists beyond our comprehension. Obviously, there is one thing that isn't clearly defined - what existed before the Big Bang. Is there such thing as existence or time or space or any kind of clear cut definitions or bounds in our own simple terms for what was before the Big Bang? God. Not as defined by Christianity or any other religion, but "God" as a being that we can put a name to as something that existed before the Big Bang or that exists beyond our comprehension. Those are just my views.

Anonymous said...

i would definitely contest your argument about "anything being possible". although sometimes astronomically complex, there are certain laws of physics that cannot be broken. so for example, if we know the properties of llamas (which we do), we know they cannot live on the moon. and there will be no exceptions on this. it's all just a matter of advancing enough in our understanding to grasp the properties of the object, whether it be the universe or ourselves. this being said, since some things are bound by laws and have been shown to be empirical as well as theoretical certainties (a ball falling down and not up), you cannot really say that all truth claims have the same probability to be true. all truth claims have the same probability to be true only when we are working in the realm of imagination without any context, which is of course a poor realm to prove or disprove anything. if you are talking about this realm, a rather useless exercise, then yes the chances of a god existing are the same as the chances of unicorns 'existence.

finally going back to the point of knowing the properties of things, an atheist wouldn't need to posit that argument as you put it. we know what people are, we are organic beings made from compounds which abound in the universe. the same carbon found in us is found in the cores of stars. what separates us from mere elements put together in clever configurations is our thoughts and feelings which consist of electrical and chemical signals. when we die the structures that deliver those signals become corrupt and decompose back into the same elemental compounds from which we came. we will not go to heaven not because there is not a heaven, but basically because "we" is only a concept that exists while were are alive and able to think. basically what i'm saying is simple. you don't need to prove the existence of heaven, you just need to accept the reality that we are material creatures bound by laws.

however if you're going to bring up the idea of souls then we're back into that imagination realm without any context, because there is no proof for souls and no proof for god.

i think the bigger and more important question is, "what is more useful, a world with or without god?" then you might start making some good arguments for religion.

-ansell